Optimistic predictions on oil demand  and Wall Street losses

2021-10-13T17:16:54
chinese markets Oil News Oil prices
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Optimistic predictions on oil demand  and Wall Street losses

Optimistic predictions on oil demand  and Wall Street losses: The International Monetary Fund and the Energy Agency have published their predictions on global economic performance, as well as oil demand in different countries.

Evest follows these reports in the following lines. 

Topics:

Oil prices are falling but it’s still near the highest level in 3 years

Monetary Fund lowers its annual economic growth predictions for major economies

Predictions on increased oil demand growth in 2023

Global oil demand predictions

Predictions on OPEC production

Chinese exchanges are rising  and the Japanese and the American exchanges are retreating

 

Oil prices are falling but it’s still near the highest level in 3 years

Oil prices are falling moderately during Wednesday morning trading.

However, Brent crude remains near its highest level in three years.

Concerns about rising coal and gas prices in China, India and Europe are exacerbating inflationary pressures which could result in a slowdown in economic growth,
and thus a decline in oil demand, which has somewhat calmed the upward trend in the market.

The dollar, which is traded near the highest annual level,
also negatively affects the market as oil becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

The cost of Brent crude futures for December on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures on Wednesday is $83.34 per barrel,
$0.08 (0.1%) lower than the closing price of the previous session.
As a result of Tuesday’s trading, these futures fell $0.23 (0.3%) – to $83.42 per barrel.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NMX) is $80.53 per barrel,
which is $0.11 (0.14%) lower than the final value of the previous session.

The day before, the value of these futures increased by $0.12 (0.1%) – to $80.64 per barrel.

Monetary Fund lowers its annual economic growth predictions for major economies

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its annual economic growth predictions for the United States and other major economies around the world on Tuesday
because of problems in global supply chains and inflationary pressures impeding economic recovery from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Growth is weak and uncertainty has intensified,” the organization said in its report.

IMF experts cut global economic growth predictions to 5.9% from the 6% announced in July.

The organization also predicts the pace to slow further next year at 4.9%.

 

Predictions on increased oil demand growth in 2023

There are many analysts who still believe that the demand for petroleum products used to generate electricity will increase as a result of the sharp rise in gas and coal prices. 

“The market is increasingly predicting that higher gas and coal prices are likely to boost demand for other fuels such as diesel and oil,” ANZ Research said in a commentary.

Global oil demand will grow by 5.2 million barrels per day in 2021 and return to pre-crisis levels by 2023,
according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Annual Global Energy Outlook 2021.

Demand for oil in 2021 will grow by about 5.2 million barrels per day, but this only partially covers the decline of 8.7 million barrels per day compared to the previous year. 

Aviation fuel consumption remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

This is often due to restrictions on international travel and limited progress in vaccinations in many developing countries,
but the pandemic may also permanently change some patterns of air travel. 

Both diesel and gasoline will return to pre-pandemic levels, but the continuing risks of remote work (especially in advanced economies)
, increased sales of electric vehicles and improved efficiency of new models are impeding the growth of fuel demand.

According to the International Energy Agency’s basic scenario, global oil demand will exceed levels in 2019 by 2023,
before peaking at 104 million barrels per day in mid- 2030, and gradually declining until 2050.

Global oil demand predictions

Demand for oil is supposed to grow by 2030 from 87.9 million barrels per day in 2020 to 103 million barrels per day, and by 2050 – to 104.1 million barrels per day (last year this figure was supposed to be reached by 2040).

Meanwhile, oil consumption in the United States will grow by 2030 to 17.4 million barrels per day from 16.4 million barrels per day in 2020, and by 2050 it will fall to 13.4 million barrels per day.

European oil demand will fall by almost half between 2020 and 2050, from 11.9 million barrels per day to 6.4 million barrels per day. 

Demand for oil in Russia will grow from 3 million barrels per day to 3.5 million barrels per day by 2030 and then fall to 3.1 million barrels per day by 2050.

In the meantime, demand in the Middle East will grow from 6.7 million barrels per day in 2020 to 10.2 million barrels per day in 2050 and in the Asia-Pacific region from 30.8 million barrels per day to 38.8 million barrels per day.

Predictions on OPEC production

The IEA predicts that OPEC will increase production by 6 million barrels per day by 2030 to 36.6 million barrels per day from 30.9 million barrels per day in 2020,
with more than 40% of this growth coming from Iraq, Iran and Kuwait.

OPEC will increase production by about 6 million barrels per day by 2030, with Iraq,
Iran and Kuwait saving more than 40% of this growth as new fields begin to operate and current fields increase production. 

OPEC and Russia together will provide 48% of this growth from total oil production in 2030, which is more than in 2020,
but much less than their share for most of the last decade.

In the International Energy Agency’s baseline scenario, hard-to-recover oil operators will give priority to profit over massive production growth until 2030,
even though average annual prices rise until 2030.

The International Energy Agency predicts that hard-to-recover oil production will provide about 20% of global oil demand growth between 2020 and 2030
(compared to 2010-2019, when it saved 70%).

Total United States oil production will grow by 3.5 million barrels per day by 2030 (up to 20 million barrels per day),

while Canada’s production will increase by 0.7 million barrels per day, owing to long-term project applications approved for development.

The International Energy Agency predicts that Brazil will maintain production levels throughout the 2020s, while emerging producers,

including Guyana and Senegal, will increase production by about 1 million barrels per day between 2020 and 2030.

Generally, global oil production will grow to 103 million barrels per day by 2030 from 91.3 million barrels per day in 2020 and will remain at the same level by 2050.

 

Chinese exchanges are rising  and the Japanese and the American exchanges are retreating

Stock indices in the Asia-Pacific region show multi-directional dynamics on Wednesday: Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 0.2%
, while China’s CSI300 rose by 0.31%. US S&P 500 index’s futures fell by 0.12%.

Major US stock market indices closed low on Tuesday.

On the basis of Tuesday’s trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by 117.72 points (0.34%) to 34378.34.

Standard & Poor’s 500 fell by 10.54 points (0.24%) to 4350.65.

The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 20.28 points (0.14%) to 14465.92.

Traders are waiting to publish US consumer price data for September this week,

along with reports of the country’s largest banks for the third quarter. 

experts predict that average inflation in the United States in September will remain at the previous month’s level- 5.3٪,
and inflation excluding food and energy – at 4%.

Technical stocks declined after progress in initial trading.

Apple’s stock fell by 0.9%, Microsoft Corp. by 0.5٪, and Alphabet Inc by 1.8%.

Walt Disney’s stock fell by 0.2%.

Disney said in a statement that Alan Horn, president of Walt Disney Studios, is leaving the company at the end of this year.

Amazon’s stock rose by 0.03%.

The company is reviewing its plan to return staff to offices and expects that some of them will continue to work remotely in the foreseeable future.

 

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