Oil starts the week at a rising edge .. Collective declines on Asian indices
Oil starts the week at a rising edge.. Collective declines on Asian indices
Oil starts the week at a rising edge .. Collective declines on Asian indices: Iran announced yesterday the victory of Ibrahim Raisi,
who is known for being more hardliner than the current president, Hassan Rouhani,
in the US presidential elections, supporting oil markets, which expect Iran – US negotiations on lifting sanctions to falter,
meaning Iranian oil will not return to the market soon.
Evest follows all this and more in the following lines.
Oil continues to rise with the support of Raisi’s victory in the United States elections.
Oil prices started the week with moderate increases today, Monday, against the backdrop of the Iranian presidential elections,
and US-Iran negotiations on the nuclear deal have stalled.
Oil support increased as talks between world powers and Iran, impeding the recovery of Iranian oil exports,
and a strong economic recovery in the northern hemisphere could continue to fuel energy demand.
Another round of fruitless nuclear talks between Iran and world powers led to higher oil prices as concerns over additional Iranian production waned.
On the other hand, the slight decline in the U.S. dollar index eased pressure on commodity prices.
Iran demands that the United States lift sanctions first, and Washington first demands that Tehran reduce its nuclear program in line with the agreement.
But negotiators are talking about progress in talks to restore the landmark 2015 agreement to halt the development of Iran’s nuclear program.
The United States abandoned this speech in 2018 under Donald Trump’s reign.
In April, the United Kingdom, China, Germany, France, Russia, and Iran began talks with the European Union and the indirect participation of
new U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration to return to the 2015 agreement.
Renewing this agreement will allow the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran and the flow of Iranian oil markets
Ibrahim Raisi Iran’s new president
Iran’s election of the conservative leader Ibrahim Raisi as President could complicate prospects for future nuclear talks.
Raisi was sanctioned by the U.S. government prior to his election as Iran’s president
and is known to be a hardliner on foreign policy.
This could upgrade the overall standard of both Washington and Tehran in reaching a consensus on lifting economic sanctions and returning to the 2015 nuclear agreement.
The price of a barrel of Brent North Sea crude reached $73.69 that morning.
That was 18 cents more than it was on Friday.
barrel of the U.S
The price of a barrel of the U.S. diversified West Texas Intermediate crude rose 25 cents to $ 71.89.
The rise in oil prices was triggered by the support of the election results in Iran and the negotiations which continue to be unsuccessful on the Iranian nuclear program.
The results of Iran’s presidential elections are widely anticipated; the new president, Ibrahim Raissi,
is a very conservative cleric backed by Iranian hardliners.
In the oil market, it is expected that the election of Resi will not at least simplify nuclear negotiations, or even make them more difficult.
This makes the scenario of increased oil supplies from Iran less likely.
This is due to the US sanctions currently in place, which will probably be eased only if a negotiated solution is found.
energy demand remains strong
The outlook for energy demand remains strong as economic recovery gains momentum in the United States and Europe,
although parts of Asia continue to suffer from the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the past two weeks, the number of air passengers in the United States has exceeded 2 million, confirming strong fuel demand.
The recent decline in United States crude oil inventories has also reinforced these expectations.
On the other side of the Pacific, Japan lifted a state of emergency this week in Tokyo, Osaka,
and many other provinces as the country prepares for the upcoming Olympics.
However, the economic hub in southern China, Guangdong, extended travel restrictions after new cases
of coronavirus infection were reported over the weekend.
Traders may also focus on the strength of the US dollar, which may exert downward pressure
on commodity prices and limit the likelihood of higher oil prices.
This can be attributed to the easing of concerns after the Federal Open Market Commission meeting last week.
Federal Reserve officials seemed increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures,
with some seeing a hike in interest rates as early as the end of 2022
Therefore, market participants will keep a close eye on Friday’s basic personal consumption price index data.
Technically, West Texas Intermediate crude broke psychological resistance at 70.00, opening the door to further potential growth.
Collective fall of Asian indices
U.S. stock futures and global markets declined on Monday, as investors continued to withdraw their bets on strong growth and inflation.
Market movements in the past few days show a partial reflection of bets on a recovery in the economy (deflation trading) and rising inflation.
Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that it could raise interest rates twice in 2023,
earlier than previously expected.
The Fed’s ability to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected pushed the Dow Jones industrial index
to its worst week in almost eight months.
Dow Jones index futures
This morning, Dow Jones index futures declined by more than 100 points, while Standard & Poor’s declined by 0.5%.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei index declined by more than 1000 points or 3.8%,
Australia’s ASX 200 index declined by 1.6%,
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined by more than 1%,
and South Korea’s Kospi index declined by more than 1.6%.
In the meantime, China’s Shanghai Composite index fell by only 0.1%.
US 10-year government bond yields fell from 1.44% to 1.39%.
This is the lowest yield since the end of February 2021.
It’s known that when bond yields fall, bond prices will rise.