Oil stabilizes What’s with the OPEC meeting? 2022-01-05T17:56:37 Oil stabilizes What’s with the OPEC meeting? Oil stabilizes What’s with the OPEC meeting: OPEC meeting and continuing with the plan to gradually increase production, had a key role yesterday. This gave markets an opportunity to take stock again. Evest follows market developments in the following report. topics: Oil stabilizes after yesterday’s sharp rally The next OPEC + meeting Which OPEC country will grow in production? OPEC experts develop three scenarios for market development In the case of a low scenario Under the high scenario For the first time in history Toyota is the bestseller in the United States Oil stabilizes after yesterday’s sharp rally Oil prices change slightly during the Asian trading on Wednesday, after rising sharply on Tuesday due to OPEC +’s decision , to keep the plan to increase oil production by 400 thousand barrels per day in February. The cost of March Brent oil futures on the London Stock Exchange Futures is $80.06 per barrel on Thursday, $0.06 (0.08%) higher than the closing price of the previous session. As a result of Monday’s trading, these futures rose by $1.2 (1.3%) to $80.00 per barrel. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude futures for February in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is $77.01 per barrel, $0.02 (0.03%) higher than the final value of the previous session. By the end of Tuesday’s trading, the value of these futures had increased by $0.91 (1.2%) to $76.99 per barrel. After the January meeting, OPEC + ministers decided to abide by the plan previously adopted to increase production in February, despite expectations of a market surplus and the spread of the new Omicron virus strain. The next OPEC + meeting The next OPEC + meeting is scheduled for February 2. Peter McNally of Third Bridge said that new OPEC + oil shipments indicate “a consensus of a group of producing countries that oil demand, will continue to grow despite some restrictions caused by Omicron.” Sources said that the American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday evening that US crude inventories fell by 6.4 million barrels in the week ending December 31. At the terminal in Cushing, where oil traded on the New York Stock Exchange is stored, reserves rose by 2.3 million barrels. Official inventory data will be released on Wednesday, and in a Standard & Global Platts poll, analysts predicted that the US Department of Energy report would indicate a 4.4 million barrel reduction in oil inventories. The oil market remains uncertain due to the spread of the Omicron strain, but it does not affect the change in oil demand. Which OPEC country will grow in production? Iraq is the largest beneficiary of compensation now – almost 800 thousand barrels per day of low production, the country plans to increase 30 thousand barrels per day in January 2022, 50 thousand barrels per day in February, 100 thousand barrels per day in March, 150 thousand barrels per day in April, 200 thousand barrels per day in May and 250 thousand barrels per day in June. Kazakhstan, which will have to make up just over 500 thousand barrels per day, plans to cut 100 thousand barrels per day in May and 400 thousand barrels per day in June Meanwhile, OPEC + reported that OPEC countries produced 580 thousand barrels per day less than the plan (Angola produced 300 thousand barrels per day less, Nigeria – 250 thousand barrels per day) in November, OPEC + produced 113 thousand barrels less (Malaysia – 140 thousand barrels less, Azerbaijan – 56 thousand barrels less, Kazakhstan – 110 thousand barrels, Russia – 30 thousand barrels per day). According to the OPEC + Technical Committee, the trade reserves of OECD countries in November reached 2.7 billion barrels, an increase of 221 million barrels, which is lower than it was in 2015-2019. OPEC experts develop three scenarios for market development As noted, OPEC experts analyzed three market development scenarios. According to the underlying scenario, global oil demand in 2021 will increase by 5.65 million barrels per day in 2022 , by 4.15 million barrels per day – up to 100.8 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, the global oil supply will grow by 7 million barrels per day. – Up to 102.2 million barrels per day, of which 5.2 million barrels per day will be produced by OPEC + countries – Up to 49 million barrels per day, and other non-OPEC countries will increase production by 1.7 million barrels per day – up to 48 million barrels per day. As a result, by the end of the year, the oil surplus will reach 1.4 million barrels per day. The excess supply will already be observed in January 2022 at 0.8 million barrels per day, in February – 1.3 million barrels per day, in March – 2.1 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, according to the underlying scenario, OECD countries’ commercial oil reserves at the end of 2021 will be 212 million barrels, below the 2015-2019 level. Reserves will continue to rise, but remain below the 2015-2019 level. That’s until December 2022, when they reach 24 million barrels. In the case of a low scenario In the case of a low scenario, when oil demand grows by only 3.8 million per day – up to 100.3 million per day, and non-OPEC countries not participating in the OPEC+ agreement will increase production by only 1.6 million per day what It reaches 47.9 million barrels per day, the surplus by the end of 2022 will reach 1.8 million barrels per day, and in January – it has already reached 2.1 million barrels per day. In this case, trade reserves will already exceed the 2015-2019 level in October 2022 and by the end of the year will be 90 million barrels above this index. Under the high scenario Under the high scenario, demand for oil in 2022 will rise by 4.4 million barrels per day to 101.1 million barrels, per day and supply by 7.1 million barrels per day to 102.3 million barrels per day, while non-OPEC and OPEC + member States will increase production by 1.8 million barrels per day. In this case, the surplus will reach 1.2 million barrels per day by the end of 2022, reaching 0.7 million barrels per day in January, and commercial stocks will rise but will remain below 2015-2019 over the course of the year. By the end of the year, it will be at 13 million barrels below. For the first time in history Toyota is the bestseller in the United States In 2021, Toyota Motors ranked first in US auto sales for the first time in history, surpassing its main rival General Motors. Toyota has boosted sales in the United States by about 10% since 2020, reaching 2.3 million cars. In the meantime, General Motors sales declined by about 13% to 2.2 million cars. According to automotive news, General Motors has been a leader in the American auto market since 1931. Toyota’s success was largely supported by the decision to store car electronics microchips before the start of the cut, with the Japanese company first betting on restoring demand for cars in the United States, the Wall Street Journal wrote. In the meantime, Toyota’s management does not expect to maintain its leadership in the American market. “To be clear, this was not our goal and we do not believe that it will continue in the long term,” said Jack Hollis, senior vice president of Toyota North America. In 2021, US auto sales were approximately 15 million, according to research firm J.D. Total U.S. car sales in 2021 were approximately 15 million, according to research firm J.D. This is slightly more than in 2020 but far less than the 17 million cars sold annually and recorded during the previous five years.