Oil rises to highest semi-annual level since 2009.. Nikai index losses

Oil rises to highest semi-annual level since 2009.. Nikai index losses: Oil managed to end the first half-year of 2021 positively,
with both benchmarks now above $70, targeting $75 per barrel in the near term. 

Evest follows what is happening in the commodity trading market today,
and relays them to you in the following lines.

Oil continues to set records

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.55% Wednesday morning, again above $73 per barrel,
and on the last day of the second quarter,
aiming to end the best half-year in terms of the scale of the increase since the first half of 2009. 

U.S. crude oil inventories fell again

According to estimates by the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. crude oil inventories fell again –
for the sixth week in a row – indicating a rebound in demand for raw materials.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude in the upcoming futures listed on the American NYMEX commodity futures exchange
on Wednesday morning rose by 0.55% to $73.37 per barrel.

Although this week has brought a 0.90% decline so far, on the last day of June,
West Texas Intermediate crude will arguably achieve its best half-year since 2009, increasing by more than 51%.

The same is likely the case for Brent crude oil, which rose by 44% in the first half of 2021, this rise last occurred in 2009 as well. 

On Wednesday, June 30, the price of European Brent oil fell by 0.25%.

U.S. crude oil inventories

U.S. crude oil inventories shrank by as much as 8.15 million barrels last week,
according to estimates by the American Petroleum Institute.

If this data is confirmed Wednesday evening by the Energy Information Administration,
this will be the sixth week in a row of reserve declines, which also surprises analysts with the magnitude of the decline.

Such information generates positive morale before the OPEC + meeting.

According to analysts, the group of oil producers will decide to bring crude oil to market,
and we’re talking about 250-500 thousand barrels per day from early August. 

Currently, oil-producing countries’ production remains below pre-pandemic levels.

According to Rystad Energy, OPEC + may increase its production by 500 thousand barrels per day from next August.

It should be noted that the Cartel recently announced that it expects a demand deficit of 2.2 million barrels per day.

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs expects that even increasing the supply of 1 million barrels per day will not prevent the continuing rally.

OPEC + summit will be held tomorrow with producing countries that may decide to increase production as of August. 

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices have been near their highest levels for more than two years,
with investors waiting for decisions to be made by OPEC+ at tomorrow’s meeting, July 1, 2021. 

In the context of the rising demand for black gold for all major unions in this sector,
thanks to the widespread rollout of vaccines,
it will be important to understand what the major producing countries will decide to do.

In fact, the cartel can still adopt a precautionary stance,
especially due to the increased infections from the delta-covid-19 variant,
which could become dominant within a few months and cause another series of restrictions on freedom of movement.

talks between Iran and the United States

For the time being, talks between Iran and the United States have been suspended, and,
as has been shown by previous statements by representatives of both delegations,
they should not be resumed until August this year. 

OPEC could also consider the possibility of a nuclear agreement between Iran and the United States,
which would have the potential to add 1.5 million barrels per day to the market since December of 600000 in May.

We remember how OPEC +, regained production of 2.1 million barrels per day from May to July 2021,
after a sharp reduction in crude oil production.

This in turn could mean, as expected by OPEC +, that the crude oil market will end the year with a deficit.

Minor movements on European exchanges

European exchanges are moving slightly in the early stages of the last cycle of the first half of the year,
which has seen them all get negative numbers.

The German DAX index lost 0.11% and the French CAC 40 fell by 0.09%. The British FTSE 100 index fell by 0.09%,
the Spanish IBEX 35 index fell by 0.64%, and the Italian index fell by 0.12%.

Investors are currently preoccupied with Delta variant developments, although reassurances have come from Moderna,
whose studies on the Covid vaccine show the presence of antibodies that protect against the variants.

 With new indications from Federal Reserve representatives,
such as Christopher Waller, that the 2022 rate hike is not ruled out,
as consideration is now being given to reducing the market purchase program.

The week, which started with concerns about the delta variant of the coronavirus, and continued with investors returning to risk,
confirms the current uncertainty in markets.

Delta variant affects Tokyo.. Weak closing of the Nikkei index

Tokyo Stock Exchange closed slightly lower, after regaining strength in the early morning. 

The market got support from Wall Street’s good performance, on the one hand,
and the ongoing concerns over the Delta variant of Covid on the other. 

In particular, the recovery of the Tokyo Stock Exchange was hampered by a scenario envisaged
by the government to extend restrictions in Tokyo and other Japanese administrations from two to four weeks,
while the Olympics are expected to open on July 23. 

The Nikkei index lost 0.07% at 28791 points, and the prevalence of the delta variable could affect the normalization
of the Japanese economy until this fall.