Oil compensates for some of its losses

2022-04-17T18:00:26
Asian indices Crude oil Russia
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Oil compensates for some of its losses under a European desire to dispose of Russian crude and Asian negative dynamics

Oil prices rose and resumed their gains since the end of March, after a 3-day decline, in expectations to free fuel from IEA member states’ reserves

Evest follows market developments in the following report

 

topic

The Federal Customs Service delays the publication of its monthly import report for an unknown reason

Russian actions to support the ruble

EU wants to phase out Russian oil imports

Oil renews its highest levels since the end of March

Investors are risk-averse under a large number of geopolitical tensions

Data expected this week

Negative dynamics of Asian indices under the closure of a large number of global exchanges

 

 

 

 

The Federal Customs Service delays the publication of its monthly import report for an unknown reason

The Federal Customs Service delayed the publication of statistics on imports of goods from countries outside the Commonwealth of Independent States for March 2022
and The Federal Customs Service typically publishes data on imports from countries outside the Commonwealth
of Independent States over the past month in the first week after the reporting month
Thus, the Federal Customs Service published import statistics for February on March 5
and for January – on February 3

Import statistics from non-CIS countries for March have not yet been published until April 15
The reason for the delayed publication of import statistics for March
as well as the possible timing of their release, has not been commented upon

 

 

 

Russian actions to support the ruble

At the beginning of the week
it became known that the Bank of Russia had suspended the publication of monthly information
on Russian foreign trade in goods (according to the balance of payments methodology)
In the Russian Balance of Payments assessment for the first quarter of 2022, published on April 11
 foreign trade data in goods was combined with data on foreign trade in services in one index

Elizaveta Naumova, the chief analyst at Alfa-Bank
told Interfax that the ruble ends the week below $80/1
while the dollar-ruble pair remains volatile, reflecting unconventional market conditions 

Dmitry Peskov, the presidential press secretary
said that Russia would turn trade with other countries into national currencies
and that work is very complicated, and it is too early to talk about timing and the type of goods
“Yes, of course, according to the president’s instructions,” he told reporters in response to a question in this regard

On the other hand, the regulator said in a statement that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation recommended that banks and non-credit financial institutions refuse to pay dividends in 2022 due to the difficult economic situation

Banks may not comply with capital adequacy ratios due to the non-payment of dividends and bonuses in the current environment
In 2022, Russian banks will be able to finance the purchase of assets from non-residents regardless of risk ratios
In addition, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation allowed banks not to create reserves for assets embargoed by sanctions until the end of the year

 

artical name Oil compensates for some of its losses

 

 

 

EU wants to phase out Russian oil imports

The European Union is phasing out Russian oil imports, The New York Times writes, citing unnamed European diplomats and officials
and “The Union is now moving towards a phased embargo that will allow Germany and other countries time to negotiate with alternative suppliers,” the newspaper wrote

The New York Times noted that a similar approach had been used when an embargo on Russian coal – four months for a transition period
How ever The Council of the European Union has reported that the ban on coal supplies from Russia, stipulated in the fifth package of sanctions, will come into force from August 2022

Oil renews its highest levels since the end of March

The oil market was not trading on Friday, following Thursday’s results, as prices rose after a 3-day decline, hitting the highest levels since the end of March
Brent crude futures for June at the close of trading on Thursday were priced at $111.66 per barrel, 2.7% higher than the previous close, and WTI futures for May were priced at $106.05 per barrel, 2.2% higher than Thursday’s close

 

 

 

Investors are risk-averse under a large number of geopolitical tensions

Global sentiment is also characterized by increased restraint in risk appetite
In addition to the Ukrainian problem, market participants are concerned that the US Federal Reserve may move to a tighter pace of monetary policy normalization, higher commodity prices threatening to accelerate price increases, a shutdown in Shanghai in China due to the coronavirus outbreak, as well as increased tensions between Beijing and Washington over disagreements over Taiwan

From a fundamental standpoint, high geopolitical tensions and risks of sanctions expansion, including an embargo on petroleum products from Russia by the European Union, remain the main downside of the market, which leaders have already discussed on Thursday
In the meantime, the market may grow significantly if there are any hints of geopolitical improvements

 

Data expected this week

From this week’s macroeconomic data
it is worth noting the dynamics of China’s GDP for the first quarter
(growth is expected to accelerate on an annual basis and slow down on a quarterly basis)
retail sales, industrial production, and investment in fixed assets in China

In the United States, the first data on the housing market will be released for March
and in Germany and Russia – estimates of industrial inflation
in the eurozone – consumer inflation and industrial production, in the United Kingdom – retail sales

 

 

artical name Oil compensates for some of its losses

 

 

 

 

Negative dynamics of Asian indices under the closure of a large number of global exchanges

On Friday, negative dynamics of Asian stock indices prevailed
with Japan’s Nikkei 225 declining by 0.3%, South Korea’s Kospi by 0.8%
China’s Shanghai Composite Index negative by 0.45%
and Hong Kong and Australia’s Easter stock exchanges closed)

Pressure has been exerted on markets through lockdowns in several major cities in China
against the backdrop of the coronavirus outbreak again, as well as the situation in Ukraine

Exchanges in the US, UK, Germany, France and other European countries were closed on Friday due to the Easter holidays

The Director-General of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva
said yesterday that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict threatens to undermine the global economic recovery
from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, exacerbating the consequences for most countries in the world
She urged global central banks to act decisively to control inflation before it became more difficult, Bloomberg said

Georgieva said the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
which begins its annual spring meetings on Monday
will lower its global economic growth forecast for this year and next
The consequences of the situation in Ukraine compel the IMF to worsen its 2022 forecast for 143 countries
which represents 86% of the world’s GDP

According to data released Friday by the U.S. Federal Reserve
 the country’s industrial output grew 0.9% in March
while experts surveyed by Trading Economics expected average growth of 0.4%

artical name Oil compensates for some of its losses

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