Did oil rise stopped after Friday’s declines?
Did oil rise stopped after Friday’s declines?
Did oil rise stopped after Friday’s declines: Last week crude oil witnessed different fluctuations and unstable performance
as the beginning of the week was successful while its end was bearish for oil which is witnessing an improvement in performance since the end of last year.
Although there are many factors that help the oil
to go towards a bullish advance, the most important of which is the success of vaccines around the world
in reducing the number of people infected with the Covid-19 virus,
except that market is now looking at bearish factors which affected the gains achieved by Oil during the week before last.
Evest is following up on these factors with you and publishes a summary of weekly oil performance.
West Texas ends the week down… Brent achieves slight gains
West Texas Intermediate(WTI) crude oil prices retreated by 2.12% to record $ 59.24 a barrel while Brent crude
declined by 1.6% to record $ 62.91 a barrel on Friday, after it reached its highest level during a year, this week.
At the end of the week, WTI futures were down by 0.4%, while the value of Brent crude futures rose by 0.8%
to indicate growth for the fifth week in a row after reaching its highest level during 13 months, earlier in the week.
In particular, a drop in oil prices is linked to the start of a recovery in production in Texas which had previously declined due to severe frost conditions.
None can say for sure how long it will take to fully restore production but oil traders and companies
managers are hoping to restore the bulk of production in the coming days amid rising temperatures and renewing electricity supplies.
Severe frost in the United States led to reduced oil production by more than 4 million barrels a day.
According to estimates by Citigroup, production in Permian Basin will decrease by one million barrels a day for another 10 days.
In addition, expectations of a possible increase in production by OPEC + countries as well as signs of easing tensions between the United States and
Iran is considered a negative factor for the market, according to Market Watch.
The market is still concerned about oversupply, especially when OPEC + is under pressure to increase production again due to a continuous increase
in oil prices since the end of November 2020.
Drop-in prices during the last two trading sessions of last week can be seen as a correction after a strong rally
and because investors are starting to take profits as well.
For the first time in a long period, the market was not affected by the US stockpile report as Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil inventories
retreated by more than 7 million barrels during the week ending on February 12th.
Oil performance this week
At the start and the middle of the week, oil prices rose on the back of unusually cold weather
in the United States and Europe in addition to accompanying a sharp increase in oil demand.
By the end of the week, frost had begun to subside but Western media had once again raised doubts about OPEC +
unity regarding Saudi Arabia’s statements about its intention to unilaterally increase oil production in March. This led to causing a sharp decline.
During the week, US Energy Companies reduced numbers of operating oil rigs for the first time since November 2020, according to data from Baker Hughes.
Texas refineries have shut down about 25% of the country’s oil processing capacity amid blackouts and severe cold.
These companies are reported to be preparing to resume production on
19 February when electricity and water services are slowly resumed.
On another hand, on Friday, Iran reiterated its calls for the United States
to lift all sanctions which were imposed by former President Donald Trump,
after an offer to hold talks from the administration of new President Joe Biden.
This means a possible increase in the supply of oil in markets in the event
of an expected reconciliation between Iran and the administration of Joe Biden.
This will make more pressure on prices again. We also may see oil return to levels of $ 40-$ 50 again.
Oil returns to its pre-epidemic levels…
Will it continue to the high path?… JP Morgan answers
After oil prices collapsed last spring, they have returned to their normal path, specifically at pre-pandemic levels.
But, will it continue on the same path?
Will the rise in oil prices continue?
This is the question that has been floating around for days among analysts who are busy untangling many bullish
and bearish factors that could play a role in the performance of the oil sector.
JP Morgan published its forecast for oil prices based on new market factors.
On Friday afternoon of February 19, Brent North Sea crude oil was trading at a rate of $ 63 a barrel.
However, Texas Intermediate crude oil is late at $ 59.
In both oils, price is at a safe distance from its lowest levels during last spring when Brent crude retreated to $ 16.6 and WTI was even in negative territory.
Now, oil is rapidly rising and its sector is returning to levels that preceded the epidemic outbreak.
Considering vaccination in the background, JP Morgan now expects a further breakthrough in United States Brent and West Texas Intermediate oil after they have already risen close to 20% in the first weeks of 2021.
Behind JP Morgan’s expectations, which point to a new rise due to 2 bullish factors:
The palpable possibility of a recovery in the global economy thanks to continuous vaccinations and a clear decline in infection cases in the United Kingdom and the United States of America.
The second possibility is that demand for oil may increase due to the return of international travel between countries.
This will be the strongest engine for the oil sector.