Bullish and bearish affect oil performance to trade without a clear direction


Bullish and bearish affect oil performance to trade without a clear direction

Bullish and bearish affect oil performanceOn Friday, oil prices closed in the green zone,
particularly driven by Libyan supply disruptions, but there were weekly losses in a market
that was concerned about devastating effects of demand because of an increase in the number of Covid-19’s infections, particularly in India.


On Friday, the price of Brent crude barrel of North Sea for June delivery ended at $ 66.11 in London,
rising by 1.09% from the closing of the previous day.


In New York, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude for the same month rose by 1.16% to record $ 62.14 a barrel,
but during the week, Brent crude fell by 0.91%,
while West Texas Intermediate crude declined by 1.47%.


Detailed performance of oil during last week


At the first session of last week, specifically on April 19, global oil prices rose in the context of the US weak dollar.

However, momentum had been constrained by concerns about an increase in the number of Covid-19’s cases in India,
the world’s third-largest importer and consumer of oil.


Bearish trend continued for 2 consecutive sessions on 20 and 21 April,
because of fears that India may impose restrictions on movement and
closure that would reduce fuel demand in the third-largest oil importer in the world.


On 22 April, world oil prices were almost unchanged when the news showed that decline in crude oil production in Libya partially offset expectations that the number of new cases of Covid-19 had increased in India and Japan, and it would reduce the ban on energy demand.


At the end of the week, positive signs of increasing oil demand in the West helped in supporting rising prices of oil.

During the last four weeks, the US average gasoline demand was 8.9 million barrels a day,
by an increase of 61.5%, over the same period of last year.

Domestic demand recorded a strong recovery trend as summer tourism season began.


At the end of the session on April 23, the price of North Sea Brent crude oil rose by 71 cents (1.1%) to record $ 66.11 a barrel.

The price of US light crude oil (WTI) rose by 71 cents (1.2%) to record $ 62.14 a barrel.


Factors of oil ups and downs overlap

The deteriorating health situation in India, disruption of supply from Libya, and a series of US powerful economic data,
all this makes us unexpected a clear and explicit trend as it is just as there are bearish factors, there are also bullish ones.


India, the world’s third-largest consumer of black gold (oil), was strongly hit by a new wave of Covid-19.

During the last 24 hours, 330,000 new infections and 2,,000 deaths have been recorded.


In response to the government, a quarantine was imposed in New Delhi for a week as well as closing all non-basic stores in Maharashtra,
while Uttar Pradesh, with a population of 200 million, imposed a closure during the weekend,
along with 13 other states across India that decided to impose restrictions, curfew, or blockades.


Several countries, including Australia, Britain, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates,
have banned travel to the country and suspended flights from India.

Japan recently announced new closures in Tokyo, Osaka, and 2 other provinces on Friday.


After China and the United States, India and Japan are respectively the third and the fourth largest oil importers in the world.


If the Indian situation is worrying about global demand,
the picture seems more reassuring than the American and European sides.


In EuroZone, Purchasing Managers’Index (PMI) data for April showed a stronger recovery than expected.

More European countries began to ease closures due to Coronavirus.

France announced that schools will open on Monday.


US data are added to optimistic expectations, as numbers of Americans applying for unemployment benefits declined
to the lowest level during 13 months last week.


On Thursday, during the presentation of its quarterly results,
Texas-based refinery and Petroleum distribution giant Valero announced that gasoline demand reached 93% of pre-epidemic levels,
while diesel demand reached 100%.


According to Reuters, the company’s CEO said that international oil activity must increase until the end of this year and beyond.


In addition, this week’s supply has been disrupted by the situation in Libya, leading to higher prices.


At the start of the week, Libyan National Petroleum Company (NOC) announced a state of force over one of Libya’s major oil ports.

This led to a halt in its exports, owing to failure to shift its balance by the Central Bank,
although recently, there has been political progress in the country.


US energy companies reduced numbers of operating platforms for the first time since March.

Energy services company Baker Hughes stated that the recent number of active diggers stands at 438 platforms,
down by only one compared to the previous week.


Before this week, drilling workers added diggers for 5 weeks in a row
and they had risen by 80% since dropping to a record of 244 in August 2020.


Investors did not seem to react strongly this week to a sudden rise in United States crude inventories by 594,000 barrels,
unlike polls that indicated a decrease of 3 million.

last month

During last month, demand for automobile fuel in the United States averaged nearly 9 million barrels,
60% more than the level of the same period last year.

There are expectations for higher spending and expensive trips for summer.


It should also be noted that prices of the 2 major oils have increased by more than 27% compared to the start of the year.