Week a head full of news and events: Market Volatility and economic events are ahead, this report will update you with the most important events ahead and the most important news

Topic

The most important event this week

British pound against the US dollar

Oil

Gold

US dollar against Japanese yen

Nasdaq

The most important event this week

Monday, January 8th

Switzerland- Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Switzerland-Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM

Thursday, January 11

Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY-USA

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) MoM-USA

Initial Jobless-USA

Friday, January 12

China – China Consumer Price Index (CPI) YOY

UK-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) MoM

USA-Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY

USA-Producer Price Index (PPI) MoM

British pound against the US dollar

The dollar achieved weekly gains of 1.08% positive labour market data in the United States,
due to the optimism of the market about the US Federal Reserve
maintaining the current interest rate for longer than expected
and sufficient to return inflation to the central bank’s target,
which provided strong support for the US dollar’s movements in the currency market,
outperforming its major counterparts.

Bullish scenario

The GBPUSD is moving between the support level of 1.2500
and the resistance level of 1.2826 and the highest rising trend line since last November.
The technical outlook for the pair is still bullish on the long-term
time frames given that the price is above the 200 moving average,
But in the short term, we still see bearish price action, since the pair failed to make a new high for 2023 in December.

If prices rise above the sub-resistance level of 1.2750,
it will push the pair to rise further to the main resistance of 1.2826, reaching the level of 1.3000.

Bearish scenario

However, if prices fall again below the minor support level of 1.2650,
this will likely push prices further to the main support of 1.2500.

Oil

Oil prices rose in last week’s trading session, achieving their first weekly gains in 2024,
aftermarket sentiment improved about the possibility of a recovery
in American demand for oil in the coming period,
especially after data from the US Energy Information Administration
revealed the positivity of oil inventories within the United States, and data was also raised.
The American labour market is better than expected.
The markets are optimistic about the strength of the labor market
and consequently the economic growth in the United States,
which occupies first place among the countries that consume the highest crude oil. Consequently, crude oil prices eventually rose.

Bullish scenario

Oil prices moved in a narrow range during last week’s trading between the levels of 70 to 74 dollars,
forming an ascending triangle pattern that penetrated upward
coinciding with closing above the falling trend line since last October,
and below the resistance level of 76.04. If it is penetrated upward, it will be a signal to reach the resistance level. 80.00

Bearish scenario

However, in the event of a return again below the pivotal level of 73.50,
this will push prices to fall again to the support level of 70.00,
and in the event of closing below with deep momentum,
it will be an indication of a further decline to the main support of 67.11.

Gold

After the US labour market data last Friday provided clear positivity through the jobs
that were added to the private non-agricultural sector by recording 216 thousand jobs instead
of expectations that indicated 177 thousand jobs, unemployment also stabilized at approximately 3.7%
instead of expectations that indicated an increase of approximately out 3.8%,
on the other hand, it showed an increase in wage rates and the provision of 0.4% instead of 0.3%,
which indicates the idea that the US Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates late this year,
which may contribute to a possible strength of the US dollar index and, in return, a negative movement for gold.

Bullish scenario

What is important in the positive purchasing scenario is the confirmation of the strength
of the rebound from around the support and the rising bottom in the areas of 2033.80 to 2016.63 dollars,
and among the criteria for an increase in the possibility of a return of strength to buyers
is the break of the descending digital channel in addition to breaking
the horizontal resistance of 2060.29 dollars to the top.

The aforementioned technical condition was achieved at the time,
giving preference to a rise in prices and targeting the levels of $2089.14 to $2104.26,
by breaking it is possible to target $2148.58.

Bearish scenario

In the selling scenario, we rely on prices being below the descending digital channel,
in addition to prices being below the horizontal resistance of $2060.29.

With a directional movement on frames (30 minutes to 15 minutes),
it will support the idea of a decline in prices to target the $2016.63 levels, and
by breaking them and trading below them, the next target will be around the $1972.33 levels.

US dollar VS Japanese yen

A fateful week awaits the financial markets to read the data on US inflation rates for December.
The markets are anticipating and speculating about the date of starting
to reduce interest rates through US consumer price data.

Experts expect annual consumer prices to rise to 3.2% instead of the previous reading of 3.1%,
while monthly core consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.2% instead of 0.3%.
it is noteworthy that a decline in inflation will lead to an early reduction in interest rates,
and vice versa if inflation rises again. Others may add, in one form or another,
a continuation of the tightening, even if it is maintained for a longer period by the US Federal Reserve.

Bullish scenario

Through the positive scenario, which depends on the idea
of prices exiting the descending digital channel and prices trading positively,
it may continue, especially after prices take an upward directional movement.

With touching the bullish technical trend line,
it will likely coincide with the horizontal digital support level around 142.55,
an opportunity to rise and target the 146.30-148.15 levels.

Bearish scenario

Through the selling scenario, which reacts by breaking and stabilizing prices
below the existing digital support around 142.55,
then we will have a downward directional movement and ensure a strong return for sellers.

If the technical condition is met, prices will have an opportunity to target 140.70 levels,
and if prices break them and hold below them, the next target will be 138.95.

Nasdaq

The American markets witnessed some downward corrections during last week’s trading
after the partial return of strength to the US dollar’s trading,
especially with the improvement in US job numbers again,
but the positive outlook remains for US stocks due to market expectations of more than 70%
that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates next in March,
which will reflect negatively on the dollar and positively on the American stock markets

Bullish scenario

The Nasdaq index is trading around the 16305 level after the downward correction
from the peak, it achieved around the 16975 levels,
as the index is trading near the turn-taking areas around the 16183 levels,
which is expected to push it upward again if behaviour seeking a reversal appears around those levels.

Bearish scenario

The Nasdaq may continue bearish trading if it breaks the 16183 levels
and closes below them in a trading session, and at that time,
the declines may continue to target the support centred around the 15700 levels.

Week a head full of news and events

Week a head full of news and events

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