Disillusionment in Germany with lower than expected GDP growth and a prospective OPEC meeting supports oil

2021-10-31T17:41:25
Eurozone Oil opec United States
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Disillusionment in Germany with lower than expected GDP growth and a prospective OPEC meeting supports oil

Disillusionment in Germany with lower than expected GDP growth and a prospective OPEC meeting supports oil: Markets declined in Europe and the United States,
due to the negative impression of the quarterly results of Amazon and Apple.
Both companies posted big gains, but even that wasn’t enough to beat Wall Street expectations. 

Both companies recorded significant gains, but that was not enough to meet Wall Street’s expectations.
Against this background, the technology sector has been weakest because of growing concerns
that many other companies may experience similar logistical problems
if the giant firms are not able to cope with the complexities of the market. 

“Mistakes” in such large companies often become a reason to review expectations,

which may have a greater impact on the market than the expectations of Fed actions.

Evest follows all developments in economic markets in the following report.

Topics:

Significant eurozone and United States figures

Low US populations income And Chicago manufacturing activity index rise beyond expectations

News from OPEC + Supports Oil 

Brent is stable at $84 and West Texas Intermediate is falling by $1

A strong start in November

Mixed weekend in Asia, Europe and the United States

 

Significant eurozone and United States figures

Inflation data in the eurozone were among the most significant figures for Europe.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is likely to be forced to change her “pessimistic” stance,
as October’s price hike accelerated to 4.1% against expectations of 3.7%. 

However, many attributed this to soaring gas prices, together with electricity.

If the dynamics of lower gas prices continue in November, the inflation rate may slow significantly.

On the other hand, German GDP grew by 1.8% in the third quarter compared to the previous three months and by 2.5% on an annual basis. 

Experts predicted that the first index would rise by an average of 2.2%, and the second – by 2.5%.

Low US populations income And Chicago manufacturing activity index rise beyond expectations

According to the United States Department of Commerce,
the US population’s income decreased in September by 1% compared to the previous month,
while expenditures increased by 0.6%

Analysts expected the first index to fall by an average of 0.3% and the second index to rise by an average of 0.6%, according to Bloomberg.

Consumer confidence at the University of Michigan fell in October to 71.7 points from 72.8 points the previous month.

The primary index was estimated at 71.4 points, and analysts did not expect it to be revised.

Chicago’s manufacturing activity index rose to 68.4 points in October,
against expectations of a decline to 63.7 points from the September level of 64.7 points.

 

News from OPEC+ Supports Oil

Sources in Algeria claim that OPEC + parties are unlikely to increase production in December because of current demand risks.

The next meeting of the organization will be on November 4. 

Iran also states that negotiations on the nuclear agreement will resume at the end of November.

It’s too early to talk about any progress, but the fact that negotiations will be resumed again adds the Iranian factor to the future oil price equation.

The weekly oil downturn is still being corrected,
the reason was not very good statistics on oil reserves in the United States and expectations for the resumption of negotiations
between Iran and the European Union on the nuclear deal. 

However, the situation in the hydrocarbon market does not change radically: The world’s fuel shortage remains high,

and OPEC + has not yet planned to increase production after the plan.

The technical position of oil may deteriorate if Brent crude prices are able to exist at a price below $83.8 per barrel –

in this scenario, the decline to the zone of $80 per barrel is not ruled out.

Prices stabilized on Friday evening, despite expectations of another decline in world reserves of raw materials.

Brent is stable at $84 and West Texas Intermediate is falling by $1

Brent crude futures’ cost for December is $84.33 per barrel (+ 0.01% and -0.3% on Wednesday),
and West Texas Intermediate crude’s price for December was $82.72 per barrel (-0.1% and + 0% on the previous day).

Bloomberg, citing an informed source, reported that the OPEC + Technical Committee forecast
that global oil reserves would fall by an average of 1.1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Previously, the Technical Committee had projected that inventories would be a ton,
reducing the volume by 670 thousand barrels per day.

World oil demand will be slightly higher than expected,
while production in non-OPEC + countries will be slightly lower than expected. 

According to the Technical Committee, by the end of this year,
oil reserves in developed countries will be about 158 million barrels below the average level during the past five years,
not 106 million barrels as previously anticipated.

In Europe, the price of gas is already more than half the price of maximum values.

This was partly influenced by the statement of Russian President Vladimir Putin,
who ordered Gazprom to start filling the European UGS facilities after the recovery of reserves in the Russian storage facilities

 

A strong start in November

The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for October will be released, which is an interesting event,
as well as corporate financial results during the third quarter reporting season.

Mixed restricted dynamics are expected at the beginning of November.

Mixed weekend in Asia Europe and the United States

Index dynamics in Asia were mixed Last Friday

Japan’s Nikkei index rose by 0.3%, China’s Shanghai Composite- 0.8%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng by 0.7%. 

Europe recovered part of its daily losses through the German Dax index, while the Futse index fell by 0.1-0.2%,
and the French KAC rose by 0.4%. 

There was no single trading trend in the United States on Friday,
with the Standard & Poor’s Index
falling by 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Index rising by 0.1%.

Apple’s fourth fiscal quarter revenue did not meet experts’ expectations,
mainly due to a shortage of semiconductor components, which affected trading on Wall Street.

 

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