A negative start for oil and Asian exchanges.. Positive prospects in Europe

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A negative start for oil and Asian exchanges.. Positive prospects in Europe

A negative start for oil and Asian exchanges.. Positive prospects in Europe:

Today, a new trading week begins, dominated by many factors.

This week will witness the announcement of a large number of economic indicators,
in addition to monitoring the epidemiological situation, especially in India which set new records.


Evest is following up all this and more through the next report.


Oil is retreating after increasing infections in India

Oil prices declined in early dealings today after severe epidemiological conditions in India negatively affected demand for the commodity and overshadowed optimism about a recovery in developed countries and China during the second half of the year.


Brent crude declined by $ 0.35, (0.52%) to record $ 66.41 a barrel,
while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell by $ 0.33, or (0.52%) to reach $ 63.25 a barrel.


Restrictive procedures against the spread of Coronavirus in India led to a decrease in fuel sales in the world’s third-largest oil importer during April.

According to the Indian Ministry of Health

According to the Indian Ministry of Health, the number of new infections in India reached 386, 452 a day, exceeding the record of the previous day,
while the number of deaths was 3,498 during the previous day.


The total demand for fuel declined by 7%, compared to the levels of April 2019.

Demand for oil in India during March was close to pre-epidemic levels.


Analysts expect India’s demand for transportation fuel to collapse further in May because of tighter restrictions.

Reuters analysts

According to Reuters analysts: “Given that Covid-19 in India does not seem to have reached its peak yet,
we expect to see a further decline in demand in May”.


In India, the demand for oil reaches 4.8 million barrels a day, and at worst, it could be temporarily halved.

After that, the recovery in consumption will be U-shaped and will take longer than what experts predicted.


Experts expect that Indian demand for oil will fall by 1 million barrels a day in May.

However, expectations suggest that the recovery in consumption in China and the United States during the next 3 months will exceed 1 million barrels a day, which is balancing the decrease in demand in India.

spread of vaccines

The spread of vaccines around the world continues to support oil demand which is expected to peak during the third quarter.

For this reason, analysts raised their expectations for the price of Brent for the fifth month in a row.


On the other hand, many optimistic reports by analysts from major investment banks also contributed to the rise of oil prices during last week,
but poor performance in some economies also affected oil prices.


According to some analysts, there is a risk that OPEC + will restore production to pre-crisis levels very quickly.

However, that risk is small now, given the cautious rhetoric of senior officials from global oil producers.


Last Tuesday, OPEC + countries met, unexpectedly for market participants, one day ahead of schedule and decided to stick to the previous plan, which provides for a gradual increase in production during May and July.


Why did gold settle down $ 1,800 for so long?

The price of gold had stabilized below the US $ 1,800 during the last few weeks.

The prospect of a further rise in inflation in the United States had made investors more sensitive to rising prices.


The United States government wants to take trillions of dollars into its own hands in order to rehabilitate the country’s infrastructure,
expand social programs, improve education and recognize family policies.


United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who was Chairman of the Federal Reserve before Jerome Powell,
said that investment programs were worth every cent but they would not pay inflation because these programs were spread over a period of 10 years.


The number of net purchases on gold fell by 8.9% to 63,154 contracts.

Net silver purchases rose by 8.5% to record 37,328 contacts.

As for platinum, it increased by 25.2%, to record 20119 contacts,
and net procurement transactions on palladium were expanded by 15.9%, to reach 20119 contracts.


Most Asian markets are retreating..Tokyo is closed

The performance of Asian stock exchanges is slowing down today and until Wednesday,
due to a series of holidays that keep the Tokyo stock exchange closed.

Today’s exchange also stopped in Shanghai because of the traditional spring festival.


The few open exchanges performed poorly today, as Taiwan retreated by 1.96%,
while Seoul declined by 0.67%, but Sydney slightly rose by 0.04%, as manufacturing indicators AIG and PMI rose above estimates.


Hong Kong also recorded a new negative mark as it declined by 1.45%,
while Mumbai fell by 0.75%, due to a strong increase in the number of new cases of Coronavirus in India, as a new mortality record was reached.


Positive forecast for European exchanges

After a slow start, pre-trading indicators improved in Europe, as the Italian FTSE MIB index suddenly raised by 0.8%.


Paris has made a progress by 0.6%, while Frankfurt rose by 0.67%, but Amsterdam rose by 0.64%.

Madrid is slightly behind as it rose by 0.46%.

In London, the stock exchange will close due to holidays.


Today… A Busy Economic Agenda

Futures in Europe and Wall Street were positive after higher retail sales in Germany were above estimates and waiting for purchasing managers’ indicators for manufacturing in France, Italy, Spain, and the European Union.


This is followed by recordings in April in France and the afternoon of the United States Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index,
with similar ISM indicators and orders for durable goods and the economic report of New York State.