Rising Tensions and Shifts in the Global Economic Landscape: Trade Talks, Oil Volatility, and Assurances from Japan

The global economic arena is witnessing notable developments, including trade negotiations led by Washington,
increasing pressure on oil prices, and Japan’s confirmation of financial neutrality in its relations with the United States.

Contents:

Trump
Oil
Japan

Trump

We Are Holding Trade Talks with Several Countries, with China as a Top Priority
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed on Sunday that the United States is holding trade meetings and negotiations with several countries, most notably China, as part of efforts to reach “fair” agreements that enhance American economic interests.
Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump emphasized that the top priority with Beijing is to secure a fair trade deal. He added that he does not plan to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, while negotiations continue at the delegation level between the two nations.
As for the possibility of announcing trade deals soon, Trump said it is “possible,” but declined to provide further details on the content or timing of such agreements.

Oil

Barclays Lowers Oil Price Forecasts Amid Accelerated OPEC+ Output Increases
Barclays Bank has lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in light of OPEC+ accelerating its production increase faster than previously planned.
The bank noted that the alliance now aims to end voluntary cuts within just 6 months, instead of the previously planned 18 months.
In a recent note, Barclays analysts cut their Brent crude forecast by $4 for 2025 to $66 a barrel,
and by $2 for 2026 to $60 a barrel, factoring in an expected increase in OPEC output of about 390,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 230,000 barrels per day in 2026.
The bank said recent developments in the energy market were influenced by several factors,
including escalating tariff policies that may hinder demand,
and a shift in OPEC+ policy itself, which has been a key driver in pressuring prices.
Barclays also forecast a decline in U.S. crude oil production by the fourth quarter of 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day,
and by 150,000 barrels per day in 2026, due to weak price incentives for expanding production.

Japan

Japanese Finance Minister: We Will Not Use U.S. Treasuries as a Bargaining Chip in Trade Talks with Washington
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato affirmed that Japan does not intend to use its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as leverage during trade negotiations with the United States, denying recent speculation on the matter.
Speaking at the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank in Milan, Italy, Kato stated,
“We are not considering selling U.S. Treasury bonds as a negotiating tool between Japan and the United States,”
responding directly to controversy sparked by his earlier comments on a TV program hinting at such a possibility.
Japan is the largest foreign creditor to the United States, with U.S. Treasury holdings totaling $1.13 trillion as of the end of February,
followed by China with approximately $784 billion, according to U.S. Treasury Department data.
Kato clarified that these bonds are held in special accounts and may be used for foreign exchange interventions,
emphasizing that Tokyo prefers to maintain financial stability and avoid any escalation in economic relations with Washington.

Rising Tensions and Shifts in the Global Economic Landscape

Rising Tensions and Shifts in the Global Economic Landscape

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