Oil Market Ignites as Dollar Rises and Gold Remains Under Pressure

Global oil prices surged to their highest levels since the beginning of the year after U.S. strikes targeted nuclear facilities in Iran.
This pushed Brent crude above the $81-per-barrel mark for the first time since January,
amid growing concerns over an escalation in the Middle East and potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

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Oil
Banks

Oil

Amid the current tension, traders are closely watching the anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his national security team for any decisions that might impact the stability of the global energy market.

At the start of the week’s trading, oil prices jumped more than 5% before trimming some gains, but remained elevated. Brent crude futures for August delivery rose by 1.3% to around $78 per barrel after touching $81.4, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed about 1.4% to reach $75.73 after nearing $78.4 during the session.

These increases are mainly driven by fears of disrupted supply through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 20% of global oil trade. This comes especially after the Iranian parliament voted in favor of closing the strait, pending final approval by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

The market is also facing risks from potential declines in Iranian exports. Iran currently produces about 3.3 million barrels per day, exporting roughly 2.2 million. Any disruption in this output would add further pressure on global supply balance.

Banks

Amid these developments, major global banks have issued forecasts indicating potential sharp price spikes.
Dutch bank ING expects a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push prices up to $120.
JP Morgan sees the possibility of prices rising to between $120 and $130 in a full-scale war scenario.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs warned that a 50% reduction in oil flow through the strait could temporarily lift prices to $110.
Barclays, on its part, projects prices may reach $85 if Iran’s exports are halved, and $100 or more in the event of a regional war.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar continued its rise for the second consecutive session, benefiting from its safe-haven status during crises.
The dollar index reached 99.05 points after a 0.35% increase.
This support for the dollar comes amid rising investor demand for the currency due to expectations of further geopolitical escalation.

While traders await the release of U.S. manufacturing and services PMI data for June, the Federal Reserve has reiterated its cautious stance, relying on incoming data to guide the future of monetary policy.

Meanwhile, gold prices declined as the dollar and bond yields rose. August gold futures fell by 0.35% to $3,374 an ounce after earlier reaching $3,413.80. The spot price also dropped by around $10 to $3,358.25.

On a political note, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance stated that the country is not seeking to expand the conflict but aims to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program and later negotiate a long-term settlement, affirming there is no intention to deploy ground troops.

Oil Market Ignites as Dollar Rises and Gold Remains Under Pressure

Oil Market Ignites as Dollar Rises and Gold Remains

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