Global Markets on Edge: Oil Fluctuates While Gold Shines Amid Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Shifts

Amid intensifying trade disputes between the U.S. and China and renewed nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran,
global markets are witnessing dramatic shifts in oil and gold prices.
While oil faces pressure from supply-demand imbalances, gold continues to soar as investors seek safe-haven assets.

Topic
Oil in the Spotlight

Gold Holds Strong

Oil in the Spotlight

Struggling with Expectations and Iranian Uncertainty

Modest Gains After Sharp Losses:
Oil prices saw a slight rebound after a quiet trading session on Monday. Brent crude traded above $65 per barrel,
while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $62, following a drop of nearly $10 since the start of the month.

Trade War Dents Global Demand:
The ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies — the U.S. and China — has shaken global energy demand outlooks.
This led energy agencies to revise demand forecasts downward,
while fears of oversupply grew after an unexpected move by OPEC+ to increase production faster than anticipated.

Hope on the Horizon: Iran Nuclear Talks Resume:
Over the weekend, high-level nuclear discussions between the U.S. and Iran
— the first since 2022 — were described by both sides as “constructive.”
Another meeting is scheduled for this Saturday in Rome,
raising the possibility that Iranian oil could return to the global market,
given Iran’s role as an OPEC member.

Forecasts Turn Cautious:
OPEC reduced its oil consumption forecasts for the next two years by around 100,000 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan revised its average Brent price projection for this year to $66 per barrel,
reflecting growing caution among analysts.

Gold Holds Strong

Investors Seek Refuge from Economic Storms

Near Record Highs:
Gold remained steady near record levels, trading at around $3,223 per ounce,
after hitting a peak of over $3,245 on Monday.
The metal benefited from growing anxiety over potential U.S. tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.

The Safe Haven Dominates:
Gold has risen more than 20% this year, supported by global market volatility and fading confidence in traditional U.S. assets like Treasury bonds.
Weakened demand for the dollar and increased inflows into gold-backed ETFs have also boosted the metal’s performance.

Fed Policy Boosts Bullion Appeal:
Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller stated that trade-related inflation would likely be temporary,
and suggested that interest rate cuts are “firmly on the table” for the second half of the year.
Lower rates typically enhance gold’s appeal, as it doesn’t yield interest.

China Drives Demand:
China, the world’s largest gold market, has seen a surge in both speculative trading and ETF inflows,
supporting the bullish trend.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026,
citing strong institutional demand and continued central bank purchases.

Global Markets on Edge: Oil Fluctuates While Gold Shines Amid Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Shifts

Global Markets on Edge: Oil Fluctuates While Gold Shines

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