Global Economic Challenges: Declining Inflation in France and Weak Growth and Oil Price Forecasts

Amid global economic fluctuations, France has experienced a sharp decline in inflation,
while major financial institutions have lowered their forecasts for U.S. economic growth and oil prices in 2025,
reflecting economic uncertainty and increasing challenges for markets.

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Inflation
J.P. Morgan
Barclays

Inflation

France’s Inflation Drops to a Four-Year Low Amid Falling Energy Prices

The annual inflation rate in France dropped to 0.9% in February, marking its lowest level in four years,
according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies.

This decline was driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, along with a slowdown in the prices of services,
manufactured goods, and tobacco, despite a slight increase in food prices.
Inflation stood at 1.8% in January, indicating a significant improvement in price levels.

On a monthly basis, the harmonized consumer price index for the European Union rose by 0.1%,
exceeding expectations, which had suggested price stability or a 0.2% decline.

In a related development, the French central bank revised its economic growth forecasts for 2025,
citing global trade tensions affecting demand for French exports.
The bank projected that growth would slow from 1.1% last year to 0.7% this year,
but anticipated that improved business investments would boost growth to 1.2% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027.

J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan Cuts U.S. Economic Growth Forecast for 2025 Amid Rising Economic Challenges

J.P. Morgan has lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2025,
expecting a slowdown from 2.6% to 1.9% due to mounting economic pressures and uncertainty over fiscal and trade policies.

According to the bank’s report, new tariffs imposed by the U.S. will lead to higher prices and increased living costs,
which could weaken consumers’ purchasing power.
Additionally, affected countries are expected to respond with retaliatory measures that
may impact U.S. exports and the performance of major companies.

Furthermore, the bank warned of slowing consumer and investment spending as consumers
and businesses become more cautious due to inflationary pressures and
the unclear monetary policy direction of the Federal Reserve.

This revision comes amid concerns that these challenges could result in a deeper economic slowdown than previously anticipated.

Barclays

It Lowers 2025 Oil Price Forecast Amid Economic Uncertainty

Barclays has cut its 2025 average Brent crude price forecast by $9 to $74 per barrel,
citing weaker demand expectations amid increasing economic uncertainty.

Barclays analysts noted in a research memo that they had reduced their 2025 demand forecast
by 510,000 barrels per day due to weak economic indicators.

In the same context, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global oil supply could exceed demand
by 600,000 barrels per day this year,
as U.S.-led production increases while global demand remains weaker than previously expected.

Barclays also lowered its oil demand growth forecast,
now expecting an increase of 900,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production is expected to rise by 200,000 barrels per day
by the fourth quarter of the year compared to the same period last year.

Global Economic Challenges: Declining Inflation in France

Global Economic Challenges: Declining Inflation in France

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