Credit Suisse Settlement and Eurozone Slowdown

Global economic developments include a major tax settlement in the U.S., a slowdown in eurozone services,
and Morgan Stanley’s lowered oil price forecasts amid rising OPEC+ output.

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United States
Eurozone
Morgan Stanley

United States

Credit Suisse Reaches $511 Million Tax Settlement with U.S. Department of Justice

Credit Suisse has agreed to pay a $511 million settlement to the U.S. Department of Justice over allegations of helping wealthy Americans evade taxes
by hiding over $4 billion in assets across at least 475 offshore accounts between 2010 and 2021.

The DOJ stated that the bank enabled its ultra-rich clients to sidestep tax obligations through secret accounts,
some linked to its Singapore-based subsidiary.
It also noted Credit Suisse’s failure to identify account holders or investigate the sources of U.S. assets.

This settlement follows a 2023 investigation by the U.S. Senate Finance Committee,
which found the bank had violated a 2014 agreement with U.S. authorities requiring full cooperation in tax evasion matters.

UBS, which acquired Credit Suisse in 2023, clarified it was not involved in the misconduct under investigation.
UBS classified the issue as a “contingent liability” and expects it to be fully resolved by Q2 2025.

Eurozone

Eurozone Services Slow to Five-Month Low Amid Trade Tensions and Uncertainty

A report by S&P Global on Tuesday revealed a sharp slowdown in eurozone service sector growth in April,
marking the lowest level in five months.
This decline was attributed to falling business confidence and persistent pressures from U.S.-led trade tensions.

The Services PMI fell to 50.1 points from 51 in March, while the Composite PMI—which includes both manufacturing and services
—dropped to 50.4 from 50.9, indicating slowing economic activity just above contraction levels.

The decline is largely due to worsening business outlooks, with the expectations sub-index hitting its lowest level since late 2022.
Overall demand continued to drop for the 11th consecutive month.

In Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, the services PMI fell to 49 points, a 14-month low,
pulling the composite index down to 50.1, the weakest reading in four months.
This reflects how global uncertainty is weighing on investor confidence and domestic economic activity.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley Cuts Oil Price Forecasts as OPEC+ Ramps Up Output

It has lowered its Brent crude price forecast for the second half of 2025
due to OPEC+ accelerating output increases for the second consecutive month,
fueling concerns over a growing global oil surplus.

In a recent research note, the bank’s analysts projected Brent to average $60 per barrel in Q2,
down from the earlier forecast of $65. For H2 2025, the estimate was revised down to $57.50, from a previous $62.50.

Looking ahead, the bank sees prices falling further to $55 per barrel in H1 2026, $10 lower than previous expectations.
However, the report also noted the possibility of a gradual price recovery by the end of 2026.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for the global oil supply surplus to 1.1 million barrels per day in H2 2025,
up from 700,000 barrels in its earlier outlook,
citing both the surging OPEC+ production and a slowing pace in global demand growth.

Credit Suisse Settlement and Eurozone Slowdown

Credit Suisse Settlement and Eurozone Slowdown

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