Oil prices have recorded their sharpest rise since last July, driven by a mix of geopolitical and economic factors, most notably the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine and cautious anticipation of the upcoming “OPEC+” meeting. These developments have brought markets back into uncertainty amid global supply and demand fluctuations.

Oil Prices and Market Movements

Oil Prices Surge

Oil prices posted their most significant daily gain since late July, supported by technical-buying activity and signs of continued supply shortages in global markets as Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure escalate.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 2.5%, settling near $66 per barrel.
November Brent crude futures closed at $69.14, up 99 cents or 1.45%.
October WTI contracts ended Tuesday’s session at $65.59 per barrel, a 2.47% gain following the U.S. Labor Day holiday.

Impact of Ukrainian Attacks and International Moves

The price surge coincided with reports of Ukrainian strikes on two Russian oil refineries. These strikes disrupted at least 17% of Russia’s refining capacity, marking the lowest refinery utilization since May 2022.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to launch “new deep strikes” against Russia, as Western efforts to convince Moscow to enter ceasefire talks faltered.
Meanwhile, the U.S. intensified indirect pressure on Russian oil buyers, imposing additional tariffs on imports of Indian goods to protest New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil—an action India labeled “unfair and unjustified.”
Tensions escalated further after U.S. President Donald Trump described trade relations between Washington and New Delhi as a “completely one-sided disaster.”
Washington has yet to take action against China, the world’s largest oil importer and top buyer of Russian crude.

Economic Factors and “OPEC+” Meeting Outlook

This latest momentum comes after months of sluggish oil performance, with WTI crude trading between $62–$66 since early August and prices down ~10% since the start of the year. This is due to concerns of a potential supply glut stemming from “OPEC+” plans to boost production, coupled with slowing demand amid U.S.-led trade wars.
The “OPEC+” alliance is set to meet on September 7 to discuss October production levels, and most analysts expect no change in supply targets.

Investors are also awaiting U.S. August jobs data, due this week, as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve’s mid-September interest rate decision.
Any rate cuts would weaken the U.S. dollar and support demand for dollar-priced commodities like oil.

Despite geopolitical tensions and economic pressures, the upcoming “OPEC+” meeting and U.S. economic data remain pivotal in shaping the trajectory of oil prices. Markets now await decisions that could redefine the balance of global supply and demand.

Oil Prices Surge

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