Goldman Sachs Outlook U.S. Economic Strength and the Dollar’s Path
In a recently published article by Goldman Sachs, economic strategists foresee an improvement in the value of the U.S. dollar in the coming year, despite the current bleak outlook.
This analysis comes against the backdrop of the current economic conditions, where the dollar is facing a decline in its value. However, the Goldman Sachs team believes that the robust economic power of the United States and high returns may serve as catalysts for enhancing the dollar’s valuation.
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Despite the dollar’s 1.6% decline this year, its ranking remains high, and Goldman Sachs analysts consider that factors contributing to the strength of the U.S. economy will stabilise its value soon. In their annual report, they pointed to expectations of a global economic balance returning in the coming year, potentially positively impacting the dollar.
While some anticipate a sharp decline in the dollar’s value, as seen after the Plaza Accord in the 1980s, Goldman Sachs experts believe that any retreat this time will be less profound. If other economies fail to keep pace with the restrictions imposed by the United States, the dollar may continue its upward trend.
On the other hand, forecasts predict a challenging fate for the Euro. Goldman Sachs experts anticipate its value rising to $1.10 next year, supported by economic growth recovery in the second half of 2024. Despite this expected improvement, there remain risks of growth weakness and additional shocks in energy prices that could impact the Euro.
As for the Japanese Yen, market sentiment is disappointed with Japan’s shift toward monetary tightening policies. Goldman Sachs expects the exchange rate of the Yen to decline to 155 Yen per dollar in the next six months, emphasizing that the Yen may struggle to confront significant economic challenges.
Concerning the British Pound, increasing pressure is evident in the short term due to its sensitivity to changes in real interest rates. In their predictions, experts anticipate that the Pound may continue on a downward trajectory in the coming months, especially with the Bank of England hesitating to raise interest rates.
Goldman Sachs Outlook U.S. Economic Strength and the Dollar’s Path